{"id":99998,"date":"2022-03-20T09:54:41","date_gmt":"2022-03-20T09:54:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brilliantreddev.co.uk\/SmartSolutions\/?p=99998"},"modified":"2025-07-14T10:45:23","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T10:45:23","slug":"q-day-is-coming-and-we-are-not-prepared","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brilliantreddev.co.uk\/SmartSolutions\/q-day-is-coming-and-we-are-not-prepared\/","title":{"rendered":"Q-Day is coming and we are not prepared"},"content":{"rendered":"

We have a problem.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Our advances in information technology have transformed our world and what\u2019s possible. Forget those futuristic \u201cvideophones\u201d that Jack Bauer made look so cool talking to his CTU colleagues in episodes of 24, I can now Skype with my parents in full HD video on my smartphone sitting at the beach. Forget the video gaming LAN parties of my youth, kids can now play multiplayer video games with almost anyone around the globe. And forget waiting in line at the bank and writing cheques, I can easily make payments, check balances, shop, and invest all online with a couple of clicks.<\/p>\n

But that all sounds great, what\u2019s the problem? It\u2019s simple, the security of our new information technology has not kept pace.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re not as secure as we think.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Individual hacking attacks are so numerous, from the\u00a0Sony<\/a>\u00a0hack of 2011 to the\u00a0Talk Talk<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Ashley Madison<\/a>\u00a0hacks of 2015, that we\u2019ve almost become desensitised to them. And while those certainly weren\u2019t good, it\u2019s the new generation of hacking that should have us really worried. In 2015, security engineer \u201cwhite hat\u201d hackers sitting comfortably in their living room,\u00a0remotely shutdown a Jeep Cherokee with a Wired journalist sitting in the driver\u2019s seat<\/a>,\u00a0while he was driving along at 60 mph on a St. Louis highway! In 2016, during the middle of winter,\u00a0a cyber attack took out 1\/5th<\/sup>\u00a0of Kiev\u2019s power grid<\/a>. What\u2019s worse\u2026\u00a0this wasn\u2019t the first time it happened!<\/a>\u00a0More recently, researchers have discovered a systematic series of attacks against power plants, refineries, and other critical infrastructure. Here\u00a0hackers have been targeting safety systems<\/a>\u00a0setup to prevent health and life-threatening accidents! Recently, these same\u00a0hackers have escalated their activities and begun probing US power grids<\/a>. With all of this, it\u2019s no wonder the\u00a0US recently declared a national emergency over IT threats<\/a>\u00a0and expressed concerns over potential state actor backed hacking.<\/p>\n

New capabilities, new threats.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Hackers are currently\u00a0selling a variety of hacking and malware tools on the dark web starting from the bargain basement price of $1<\/a>. This is big business, with\u00a0some hackers raking in $80,000 a month or more<\/a>\u00a0causing\u00a0more than 1 billion people to have their data compromised in 2018<\/a>\u00a0alone. And while this should already disturb you, it\u2019s the rise of state sponsored hacking with new tools that\u2019s the real problem. For example, researchers are now applying new techniques like machine learning to the cryptanalysis of random number generators, both\u00a0classical<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0quantum<\/a>, exploiting patterns that many of the traditional suite of tests can miss. But the real kicker is something called quantum computing.<\/p>\n

Quantum computing is the next advancement in computing, where quantum systems are now used to represent information not in bits anymore but now in quantum bits \u2013 qubits for short. These quantum systems operate according to the laws of quantum mechanics. Typically very small scale systems or particles, good examples are single photons, the spins of electrons or artificial atoms, or trapped ions \u2013 all of which people are trying to build quantum computers with. The advantage of using qubits that operate according to new quantum computing rules is they can be used to process information in new ways, potentially much more efficiently.<\/p>\n

This new computing paradigm promises great advancements, such as quantum simulations that could allow the efficient design of new molecules, fertilisers, and cancer drugs. Quantum computing also happens to be tailor made to solve many of the mathematical problems which currently underpin the security of our current, convenient cryptographic algorithms. The\u00a0RSA algorithm<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0elliptic curve cryptography<\/a>\u00a0both depend on the difficulty of a particular mathematical problem, called the hidden subgroup problem, for their security. But in 1994, Dr. Peter Shor, in what\u2019s now famously known as Shor\u2019s algorithm, showed an algorithm that could be run on a quantum computer that could efficiently solve exactly this problem! Thus, while the development of a quantum computer will have all sorts of positive effects it will also radically speed-up the cracking of our current encryption codes.<\/p>\n

Quantum computing is closer than we think.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Quantum computers might seem futurist and far enough away that we don\u2019t have to worry, but that would be a mistake. A little thought shows just how dangerous this is and that we should be starting to worry a lot sooner \u2013 indeed, D day might already have passed!<\/p>\n

A nifty little equation, termed Mosca\u2019s equation, sums up nicely when we need to worry about upgrading our cyber security. It\u2019s given by<\/p>\n

x + y > z<\/p>\n

where x = the security lifetime of our data (i.e. how long we want it to be secure), y = the upgrade time (i.e. the time needed to transition our information technology security systems to quantum-safe ones), and z = the time to build a quantum computer (i.e. the time at which our current security systems will become insecure). In a nutshell? If it\u2019s going to take 10 years to upgrade our security systems and you want your medical records to be secure for 10 years at least, meanwhile there\u2019s a reasonable chance a quantum computer is going to be built in the next 15 years, then you\u2019re already out of luck. Since there\u2019ll be 5 years while your sensitive data is effectively unencrypted and in the clear. See\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0for a whimsical article explaining this \u201cstore now, crack later\u201d attack using the recent Avengers Endgame movie.<\/p>\n

While most of the quantum computers we\u2019ve build so far have been small prototypes, quantum computing is what\u2019s known as an exponential technology; that is, progress isn\u2019t linear. The\u00a0human genome project<\/a>\u00a0was another great example of an exponential technology. It was a multi-billion dollar project which spanned 13 years. Famously, it had very little to show for itself more than half-way through the project. It certainly didn\u2019t have half the human genome mapped. But all of a sudden the investments and work started to pay off. The technologies in development started to produce results that snowballed one on top of the other, which fed back to produce faster and faster development. And in a few short years, the human genome project completed with a resounding success. What\u2019s more the cost has also dropped astronomically,\u00a0from hundreds of millions of dollars at the turn of the century to now less than $1,000 in 2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For quantum computing, we\u2019re now starting to see the same behaviour after many years of seemingly small-scale development in university labs. We\u2019re starting to see the exponential \u201ckink\u201d in the graph. Where 2, 4, and then 8 qubits was the record for a very long time, in the matter of a few short years we\u2019ve seen\u00a019 qubits (Rigetti, 2018), 49 qubits (Intel, 2018), 50 qubits (IBM, 2017), and 72 qubits (Google, 2018)<\/a>\u00a0now demonstrated. Even better, quantum computers are starting to actually be useful in commercial applications, such as\u00a0BT using a DWave machine to optimise it\u2019s network planning<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Accenture partnering with 1Qbit and Biogen to develop a quantum-enabled molecular comparison application<\/a>. And it\u2019s this last point that will really see the technology take off, once businesses start to see a\u00a0commercial gain<\/em>\u00a0from using the technology, investment and development will simply re-enforce one another and take off.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t believe me? Try plotting the trajectory of commercial system development in terms of number of qubits. Far from the shallow trajectory traced by academic systems, you\u2019ll see that commercial quantum computers (albeit in the very early days with a few data points) are very nearly following their own Moore\u2019s law (see upcoming KETS\u2019 Threat Assessment). The potential is so strong that\u00a0some experts think there\u2019s a 1 in 6 chance that by 2026 a quantum computer will be built that is able to break RSA-2048<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Why we should be worried?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

So just how worried should we be? Very, as several recent analyses show. Researchers are working the problem from both ends. As we\u2019ve just seen, the development of quantum computers is speeding up exponentially. Similarly, researchers are making great strides in optimising the algorithms. Initial estimates in 2015 of how many qubits it would take to factor a 2048 bit number on a quantum computer were about 1 billion. But only a few short years later,\u00a0researchers have brought it down to about 20 million qubits to factor a 2048 bit number in about 8 hours<\/a>. Factoring is roughly equivalent to the hidden subgroup problem and is used by the RSA algorithm for its security. Currently, industry is still typically using key sizes of 1024 bits, though many are now starting to switch to 2048 bit keys based on NIST\u2019s recommendations.<\/p>\n

Recent work by Prof. Michele Mosca (whose equation we met above), a computer scientist, quantum information specialist, and Deputy Director of the Institute for Quantum Computing and collaborator Dr. Vlad Gheorghiu also\u00a0analysed the time and resources needed for quantum cryptanalysis of some of our current cryptographic schemes<\/a>. What they found was that with some very modest assumptions about quantum computing hardware, RSA-3072 and the NISTS-256 elliptic curve algorithm (roughly the equivalent to RSA-3072) should be crackable by 2042 within less than 1 day. And if one allowed the quantum computer to work for a year \u2013 a modest amount of time for determined state actors trying to access high value data \u2013 even larger key sizes of RSA-4096, RSA-7680, and NISTS-521 are well within reach<\/p>\n

Now put that into the context of how long you\u2019d like to keep your data safe for. Starting with the Top Secret information of governments. The\u00a0US<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0UK<\/a>\u00a0expect classified information to remain secure for a minimum of 25 years. Thus, information sent now is expected to stay out of the public domain until at least 2044. But if the analyses above are correct, then we are already too late then in securing today\u2019s most confidential information!<\/p>\n

IP and commercially sensitive data (such as oil deposits, drug trial data, merger plans, and trade secrets) are expected to be protected for 5-20 years. Satellite systems, which are receiving a lot of attention at the moment as the commercial space race takes off, take 4-5 years to build and launch and are then expected to have a service lifetime of roughly 15 years. Third-party information (such as bank details, transaction data, and credit cards) is expected to be secure for 7 years or longer. And now, thanks to GDPR, disclosure carries severe consequences \u2013 with potential fines of up to 4% of a firm\u2019s annual turnover or \u20ac20m. While some of these might still have a short security window, it\u2019s clear that the time is coming rapidly where we can\u2019t meet these requirements with our current solutions.<\/p>\n

The future promises big advancements\u2026 with huge accompanying risks if we\u2019re not careful.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

So far we\u2019ve just been talking about current technology, but the future promises advancements that will transform our lives, society, and life as we know it. Imagine when we can finally put our medical records fully online, so that if I\u2019m in an accident on vacation and need medical care the doctors can have up-to-date access to my medical records and allergies before they treat me. Or soon we might each be mapping our own personal genome in the hopes that it can help cure a future cancer.<\/p>\n

Major banks are moving the data and services for their entire organisation into the cloud, while new distributed ledger technology (aka Blockchain) is rapidly changing their verification services and sometimes removing the need for them completely. Similarly, some functions typically run by governments are now being stored as transactions on a public ledger that lives in cyber space for anyone to inspect. Edge computing \u2013 putting data and processing much closer to the user or application at the edge of the network \u2013 is getting us better Netflix binging and the potential for completely new services. My next car might no longer come with a steering wheel as standard. And we\u2019re stepping into our AR and VR future, which lets us fend off a shark while cage diving or walk on Mars with friends in our living room on a Friday night.<\/p>\n

These are fantastic advances, but my medical records and certainly my genome are\u2026 well\u00a0me!<\/em>\u00a0How secure\u00a0is\u00a0<\/em>my bank account living in the cloud? Bitcoin, despite its increasingly widespread adoption, is built on cryptographic primitives whose security is rapidly being undermined. Edge computing is just that, a lot of precious data sat on the edge of a network outside the traditional secure boundaries of an organisation. What happens when the first autonomous car gets sick with a virus? And how do you police a virtual environment?<\/p>\n

Your next Xbox or PlayStation gamer tag might require more vetting then your driver\u2019s licence.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

I absolutely want my medical records to be secure. The tiny size of my bank account, currently its best protection, won\u2019t stand up much longer when attacks can be efficiently launched at scale. All that great blockchain technology, is based on fundamentally vulnerable cryptography. Data is the new gold and absolutely must be protected out in the wild. Future cars should not only get me from A to B safely, but they should\u00a0not<\/em>\u00a0be able to be used remotely as weapons in future terrorist attacks. And the realism that AR\/VR is reaching, its biggest strength, absolutely shouldn\u2019t allow a sexual assault to be possible from anywhere on the planet on Xbox\u2019s and PlayStation\u2019s networks.<\/p>\n

Next generation solutions.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite what some will tell you, the solutions to all of these new problems are complex\u2026. because our information technology is complex. And while it will likely be the large companies and organisations that feel the pain first, we as individuals won\u2019t be far behind. We already have huge problems in front of us with how social media systems such as Facebook and Instagram should evolve in a world where state actors are using them to influence elections.<\/p>\n

Security, long an afterthought and an annoying cost, now needs to come to the fore and be embedded in every piece of new technology as one of the first thoughts, not the last. And no one technology holds the answer, just like today, complete solutions will be made up of many different pieces: new trust structures and algorithms, hardware and software, classical and quantum. At KETS, we\u2019re developing some of these new tools,\u00a0quantum encryption\u00a0<\/em>tools, to build the solutions of the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We have a problem. Our advances in information technology have transformed our world and what\u2019s possible. Forget those futuristic \u201cvideophones\u201d that Jack Bauer made look so cool talking to his CTU colleagues in episodes of 24, I can now Skype with my parents in full HD video on my smartphone sitting at the beach. Forget […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":99912,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-thought-leadership"],"yoast_head":"\nQ-Day is coming and we are not prepared - KETS Quantum<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/brilliantreddev.co.uk\/SmartSolutions\/q-day-is-coming-and-we-are-not-prepared\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Q-Day is coming and we are not prepared - KETS Quantum\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We have a problem. Our advances in information technology have transformed our world and what\u2019s possible. Forget those futuristic \u201cvideophones\u201d that Jack Bauer made look so cool talking to his CTU colleagues in episodes of 24, I can now Skype with my parents in full HD video on my smartphone sitting at the beach. 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